As global trade dynamics shift, Maine’s lobster industry—a cornerstone of the state’s coastal economy—is watching closely. On April 3, Island Institute hosted a webinar on Navigating Lobster Tariffs, bringing together experts from business, economic, and policy fields to explore how potential tariffs could ripple across Maine’s marine economy and fishing-dependent communities.
Moderated by Island Institute’s Chief Policy and External Affairs Officer Nick Battista, the panel featured:
- Luke Holden, Founder and CEO of Luke’s Lobster
- Amanda Rector, Maine State Economist
- Eric Miller, President of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group
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WEBINAR Context & Background
Each year, Maine harvests roughly 90 million pounds of lobster—but it doesn’t all stay in the United States. Nearly half is trucked across the border to Canada for processing before being re-imported into the U.S. and sold worldwide. This two-way trade is essential: Maine lacks the large-scale processing infrastructure that Canada has built, while Canadian processors rely on Maine’s consistent supply of live lobster to meet global demand. This mutually beneficial relationship is just one piece of a much broader $7.5 billion annual trade economy between Maine and Canada, which also includes critical equipment, packaging, and materials used in the lobster industry.
Key Takeaways FROM THE WEBINAR
- Economic uncertainty is the immediate challenge
Lobster prices may fall as consumers pull back spending. That’s more likely to hurt Maine’s fishing communities in the near term than any one policy decision. - Maine and Canada function as one lobster economy
Processing capacity in Canada is essential to Maine’s business model. Any barrier—tariff or otherwise—has ripple effects on both sides of the border. - Canada’s role in Maine’s economy goes well beyond lobster
More than $7.5 billion in trade flows between the two annually, impacting everything from jobs to supply chains.
Top Questions & ANSWERS from the Webinar
- Could tariffs affect the price of lobster this summer?
Possibly. While lobster itself isn’t being targeted, a weaker economy could reduce demand and drive prices down. Tariffs imposed by other countries in retaliation for U.S. tariffs could impact lobster markets across the globe. - Will tariffs affect materials used in the lobster industry?
Yes. New tariffs apply to a range of goods—like cold chain equipment and packaging—used in harvesting and processing. - Is U.S.-based lobster processing a viable solution?
Not immediately. It would require major investment, and short-term capacity is limited. There are also structural and market impediments to processing more lobster in Maine that need would likely need more than an investment in a new plant to overcome. - How are Maine and Canada working together through this?
With steady communication. Both know the national-level debate shouldn’t disrupt local-level partnerships.
ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS from the Webinar
- Maine’s lobster supply chain is global—but vulnerable
Luke Holden noted that the industry is “completely commingled,” and any disruptions—especially tariffs on goods used in processing or distribution—could increase costs and create logistical challenges. That puts pressure on fishermen, buyers, and businesses across the chain. - Economics will affect the industry
While lobster itself isn’t currently subject to tariffs, broader instability is impacting demand. As a luxury product, lobster sales rise and fall with consumer confidence. “People only pay for something like that when they’ve got confidence in the economy,” said Luke Holden. If the market softens, dock prices could drop—tightening already slim margins for Maine lobstermen. - The lobster industry has weathered worse and is built to adapt
From COVID-19 to whale regulations, Maine’s lobster industry has faced major hurdles before. Luke Holden was clear: “We will catch the product. We will produce it. We will sell it.” Resilience, he stressed, is baked into the DNA of the industry. - Tariffs could strain the broader U.S.–Canada economic relationship
Amanda Rector reminded the audience that Canada isn’t just Maine’s top seafood trade partner; it’s Maine’s top trade partner, period. Tariff-driven disruptions could hit jobs, incomes, and local economies up and down the coast.
At Island Institute, we help Maine’s coastal communities navigate complexity—whether it’s climate, energy, or trade. The lobster industry’s resilience doesn’t happen by accident. It’s the product of strong relationships, forward thinking, and hopeful persistence.
As Island Institute’s Nick Battista put it: “We do have a strong coast, and it’s the people that make our coast strong in our communities and our connections to each other.”
